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Up to One Million Hectares of Uncultivated Land: How and What Farmers Will Plant in Spring 2027

05 November 2026, 06:17 3363

Ukraine’s autumn sowing campaign took place amid a critical shortage of working capital. Sown areas were reduced in favour of less costly spring crops. However, the situation with spring sowing could become even more critical if exports do not fully recover.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food notes that 20 million hectares in Ukraine are planted with six main crops: wheat, barley, corn, soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower. It is forecast that in 2027, farmers will reduce the areas planted with grain crops — corn and wheat — while increasing those under oilseeds — soybeans and sunflower.

Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine

This year’s rapeseed area is in line with that of the previous year. The total area planted with barley also remains unchanged at around 1.5 million hectares. Farmers are likely to sow 200,000 hectares of spring rapeseed. Corn areas are at the greatest risk of being reduced, with producers potentially reallocating some of this land to soybeans and sunflower. Under current conditions, around 1 million hectares of land could remain uncultivated.

Grain Crops Become Unprofitable, Oilseeds Take Priority

Oleksii Tartakivskyi, an analyst at Feniks Agro, said during the Fat & Oil Industry 2026 conference that, according to distributors, there has been an unusually high demand for spring rapeseed seed among farmers in recent weeks. Typically, this crop occupies up to 100,000 hectares in Ukraine, but the expert suggests that the area planted may expand somewhat next season.

Oleksii Tartakivskyi, Analyst at Feniks Agro

In Ukraine, the ratio of areas planted with oilseeds and grain crops was 1:1 in 2022–2023. In 2023, corn began to regain its share, but the situation changed due to war-related risks. According to the forecast, grain crops will definitely lose ground, with their areas declining very significantly. As for oilseeds, the areas planted with rapeseed and soybeans will definitely increase, as these crops generate profits.

Regarding sunflower, the analyst notes that it is a problematic crop for farmers this season, as its price has fallen significantly. However, there is a possibility that the price will recover by spring, allowing farmers to make a profit. At present, sunflower can only be profitable when exported (to Bulgaria and Türkiye), as the domestic market does not provide a profit. The average cost of growing sunflower is UAH 15,000–16,000. This means that at the current price, there is no economic sense in growing this crop. However, compared with grain crops, the economics of sunflower production look quite favourable.

«If we look at the overall profitability of agricultural crops, it is oilseeds that provide agricultural producers with at least some profit. Therefore, oilseeds will be a priority next season, with soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower taking the lead,» Oleksii Tartakivskyi believes.

Sowing Campaign 2027 Will Be Marked by Strict Cost-Cutting

Roman Klymenko, Director of the Small Business Lending Products Department at PUMB, is confident that the hypothesis that farmers will not sow anything at all in spring 2027 is invalid.

«The autumn sowing campaign showed fluctuations in the areas planted with winter crops, but this figure remains within the range recorded over the past three years. In other words, the areas have decreased, but not so critically that this should be perceived as a market reaction or a signal not to sow in spring. Based on the results of the autumn sowing campaign, we can see that farmers believe in a positive scenario, meaning that they are entering production cycles and continuing their operations,» Roman Klymenko noted.

According to him, farmers will assess the situation when deciding on spring crops, but a scenario in which they abandon the spring sowing campaign is unlikely to be realistic, as there are several factors that cannot be ignored. For example, there are costs associated with leased land plots, and if rent is not paid, land-share owners face the risk of losing their land bank. The second factor is social responsibility, as agricultural enterprises are often the main employers in villages. Therefore, it is not easy simply to dismiss employees who have no alternative sources of income.

Roman Klymenko, Director of the Small Business Lending Products Department at PUMB

I assume there will be cost reductions and optimisation of sown areas. If logistics do not recover or are not largely compensated for through alternative routes, farmers will take risks. For example, we estimate that fertilisers will be the first thing they try to save money on. Some farms will choose not to purchase high-quality planting material and will instead use seeds already available on the farm for sowing. In other words, they will risk productivity and efficiency while reducing costs.

Alex Lissitsa, President of UCAB, noted during the discussion event «The Agricultural Sector During the Full-Scale War: Survival Strategies» that March 2027 would be the next checkpoint for the agricultural sector, when it would become clear which crops were worth planting and whether ports were operating. A final assessment of whether Ukraine’s agricultural sector would remain a global player could be made in June, when companies’ working capital would finally reach zero or turn negative.

Alex Lissitsa, President of UCAB

The next sowing campaign will be marked by strict cost-cutting: fertiliser use will decrease by 40%, farmers will switch from original seed hybrids to less effective alternatives, and from original crop protection products to generics. The main goal is to reduce production costs as much as possible, because last year fuel accounted for 7% of production costs, compared with 23% now. Diesel fuel cost UAH 40 per litre last year, compared with UAH 110 this year. Fuel prices have tripled, while agricultural product prices have fallen. Reduced use of fertilisers and crop protection products means that the harvest will be smaller.

Operational Survival Mode: Do Farmers Have a Plan B?

The Question of What to Sow in Spring Remains Open for Farmers

At the consulting company Barva Invest, analysts take the progress of the winter crop sowing campaign into account when forecasting the next season. The trends are clear: farmers have responded to demand for rapeseed, and the planned area for rapeseed sowing has been exceeded. As for grain crops — barley and wheat — analysts believe that agricultural producers should already be «putting on the brakes».

Bohdan Kostetskyi, Operating Partner at Barva Invest

There will be large unused carryover stocks of wheat, and given the current export situation, there will also be questions regarding sunflower. It will not be possible to process all the sunflower in Ukraine, and there is also little chance of exporting all the unprocessed seeds. Therefore, farmers now face a huge question: what should they sow in spring? Leaving land fallow is not an option, as returning a field to crop rotation will cost farmers $200/ha.

According to the expert, in the current situation, Ukrainian logistics need to be reinvented to save the agricultural sector. In particular, to encourage investors to consider the Danube and expand this route, it is necessary to create conditions that would guarantee its operation regardless of whether deep-water ports are open or closed.

«Tariff issues must be carefully considered — the tariff to Izmail should be the same as to Odesa. This requires decisions at the state level and allocated funding so that investors can be confident that the Danube hub will always be in demand and continue operating. Otherwise, in 2027, we will witness systemic, irreversible changes,» Bohdan Kostetskyi believes.

Liudmyla Lebid, AgroPortal.ua

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