Grain market

The wheat and corn market is entering its most turbulent period in the past thirty years. Previous crises — the global food crisis of 2007–2008, supply disruptions in 2010 and the U.S. drought in 2012 — were largely driven by a single factor: a harvest shock, a spike in oil prices or a short-term financial panic. Today, the global grain market is being pressured simultaneously by at least eight structural factors.

Ukraine is capable of identifying grain originating from temporarily occupied territories with a very high degree of accuracy.

The possible introduction by Israel of a 50% duty on feed wheat from the Black Sea region is unlikely to become a systemic blow to Ukrainian agricultural exports. However, it may signal a new stage in the politicization of global grain trade.

Ukraine recorded another series of flights to Egypt in late April, during which Russia exported Ukrainian grain from the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) through the ports of Mariupol and Sevastopol.

The Ukrainian corn market is gaining momentum amid renewed purchases by European Union countries, which are looking for stable volumes. At the same time, limited stocks and reduced acreage in leading producing countries are creating the potential for a shortage on the global market.

Grain and legume stocks in Ukraine amounted to 15.68 million tonnes as of April 1, which is 5.3 million tonnes more than on April 1, 2025.