Grain market

The blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is putting the spring sowing season at risk.

At the current pace of limited exports without the ports of Greater Odesa, Ukraine will effectively face a shortage of domestic grain storage capacity in November, which could amount to between 8 million and 11 million tonnes.

The suspension of exports through seaports could result in tens of billions of dollars in lost revenue for Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

International demand for Ukrainian wheat remains stable despite the effective suspension of grain exports through the ports of Greater Odesa due to intensified Russian attacks.

Over the past several days, only four to five vessels have been calling at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports due to Russian attacks, and vessel traffic was suspended on 22 July. The Ukrainian government is currently working to resolve the situation and will take all possible measures to ensure the continued stability of exports through the Black Sea ports.

Ukraine needs to protect its domestic market by launching an investigation into buckwheat imported through Kazakhstan from russia and banning such imports, as they are destabilizing the market.

Wheat exports from the port of Russian-occupied Mariupol have amounted to 88,800 tonnes since the beginning of 2026.

The wheat and corn market is entering its most turbulent period in the past thirty years. Previous crises — the global food crisis of 2007–2008, supply disruptions in 2010 and the U.S. drought in 2012 — were largely driven by a single factor: a harvest shock, a spike in oil prices or a short-term financial panic. Today, the global grain market is being pressured simultaneously by at least eight structural factors.

Ukraine is capable of identifying grain originating from temporarily occupied territories with a very high degree of accuracy.

The possible introduction by Israel of a 50% duty on feed wheat from the Black Sea region is unlikely to become a systemic blow to Ukrainian agricultural exports. However, it may signal a new stage in the politicization of global grain trade.

Ukraine recorded another series of flights to Egypt in late April, during which Russia exported Ukrainian grain from the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) through the ports of Mariupol and Sevastopol.

The Ukrainian corn market is gaining momentum amid renewed purchases by European Union countries, which are looking for stable volumes. At the same time, limited stocks and reduced acreage in leading producing countries are creating the potential for a shortage on the global market.

Grain and legume stocks in Ukraine amounted to 15.68 million tonnes as of April 1, which is 5.3 million tonnes more than on April 1, 2025.