Analytics

Record-breaking heat across Europe has had only a limited impact on early grain crops, but corn losses are expected. Ukrainian grain could help offset these shortages, although export opportunities will largely depend on logistics.

Skeptical expectations regarding land reform have not materialized: Ukrainian soil is not being hauled away by the traincarload, and the oligarchs have not bought up all the fields. Instead, land prices are rising, and leasing has become more transparent, generating additional revenue for local communities. However, it is still difficult to use land shares as collateral.

For Ukrainian farmers, the European Union is the most important market, one that is already shaping export strategies and production technologies. In January–February 2026 alone, Ukraine exported 9.95 million tonnes of agricultural products worth a total of $4 billion. At the same time, foreign currency revenues from agricultural exports increased by 9.3% compared with last year, while the EU’s share in total exports amounted to about 50%.

The production cost of major crops will increase by 14-17% this year, including wheat by 14%, corn by 17%, and sunflower by 16%.