international trade

Exports of pasta products and couscous from Ukraine recorded the strongest growth among processed grain products in the 2025/26 marketing year.

The EU–Ukraine Association Agreement provides for a review of trade quotas every five years. However, due to the full-scale war and the introduction of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) regime, the timeline has shifted, and the next quota review is expected on January 1, 2028. At the same time, if Ukraine accelerates its integration into the European Union, there may be an opportunity to return to a free sugar trade regime.

According to the results of January–May 2026, Ukraine’s trade turnover showed a significant imbalance. During this period, goods worth $40.5 billion were imported into the country, while export volumes were more than twice as low — only $17.5 billion.

The wheat and corn market is entering its most turbulent period in the past thirty years. Previous crises — the global food crisis of 2007–2008, supply disruptions in 2010 and the U.S. drought in 2012 — were largely driven by a single factor: a harvest shock, a spike in oil prices or a short-term financial panic. Today, the global grain market is being pressured simultaneously by at least eight structural factors.