international trade

Russian attacks on civilian vessels and port infrastructure have effectively halted traffic to the ports of Greater Odesa. Ukraine is expanding exports by rail, road and via the Danube. However, these routes will be able to provide only about half the capacity of the Black Sea ports. This poses a threat to exports of Ukraine’s harvest and the stability of global food markets.

Following the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries, the first major international business event dedicated to exploring new opportunities will be AgroFoodSummit 2026, taking place on 24–25 September in Mersin — a strategic Mediterranean port and one of the region's leading logistics hubs for global agricultural trade.

Exports of pasta products and couscous from Ukraine recorded the strongest growth among processed grain products in the 2025/26 marketing year.

The EU–Ukraine Association Agreement provides for a review of trade quotas every five years. However, due to the full-scale war and the introduction of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) regime, the timeline has shifted, and the next quota review is expected on January 1, 2028. At the same time, if Ukraine accelerates its integration into the European Union, there may be an opportunity to return to a free sugar trade regime.

According to the results of January–May 2026, Ukraine’s trade turnover showed a significant imbalance. During this period, goods worth $40.5 billion were imported into the country, while export volumes were more than twice as low — only $17.5 billion.

The wheat and corn market is entering its most turbulent period in the past thirty years. Previous crises — the global food crisis of 2007–2008, supply disruptions in 2010 and the U.S. drought in 2012 — were largely driven by a single factor: a harvest shock, a spike in oil prices or a short-term financial panic. Today, the global grain market is being pressured simultaneously by at least eight structural factors.