
El Niño threatens the global sugar market with shortages and rising prices

Shifting Trade Flows: What Opportunities Are Available to Ukrainian Producers?

Global Markets Could Lose 38 Million Tonnes of Grain from the Black Sea Region if Ports Do Not Resume Normal Operations

Global agricultural markets are entering the 2026/27 season amid shifting trade flows, intensifying competition for key buyers, and the growing influence of geopolitics and logistics on trade. How these factors will reshape markets in the new season and where opportunities will emerge for producers, traders and processors will be the central theme of AgroFoodSummit 2026, which will take place on September 24–25 in Mersin, Türkiye.

In the 2025/26 season, the European Union reduced its rapeseed imports from third countries to 5.4 million tonnes, compared to 7.5 million tonnes a year earlier. One of the reasons was the increase in the EU’s domestic harvest.

Following the decline recorded at the end of June, European skimmed milk powder (SMP) priceshave begun to recover. This has allowed Ukrainian exporters to return to their usual price levels, although some traders continue to seek lower purchase prices.

Exports of pasta products and couscous from Ukraine recorded the strongest growth among processed grain products in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Record-breaking heat across Europe has had only a limited impact on early grain crops, but corn losses are expected. Ukrainian grain could help offset these shortages, although export opportunities will largely depend on logistics.

According to the results of January–May 2026, Ukraine’s trade turnover showed a significant imbalance. During this period, goods worth $40.5 billion were imported into the country, while export volumes were more than twice as low — only $17.5 billion.

The wheat and corn market is entering its most turbulent period in the past thirty years. Previous crises — the global food crisis of 2007–2008, supply disruptions in 2010 and the U.S. drought in 2012 — were largely driven by a single factor: a harvest shock, a spike in oil prices or a short-term financial panic. Today, the global grain market is being pressured simultaneously by at least eight structural factors.

Ukrainian businesses have established the Ukraine-Africa Business Council (UAfrica Business Council) to expand export opportunities and strengthen their presence in African markets.

Ukraine will work to increase supplies and promote higher value-added products, including poultry products, pork products, processed foods and other categories that generate more income within the country.

On April 22–23, Kyiv will host the BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV-2026 conference, with a key focus on UA Agro Restart: Strategies for the Future 2026–2030.