Ukraine Enters the New Season with Large Pea Stocks: Will Its Position in Asia Strengthen?

It is noted that India and Pakistan could become some of the key centres of demand.

• In India, total pulse production is expected to reach only 8.5–9 million tonnes, below target levels.
• Pakistan is already structurally dependent on external supplies: the country consumes more than 700 thousand tonnes of chickpeas alone, while domestic production amounts to around 300–350 thousand tonnes. Shortages are also characteristic of other crops: lentil production is estimated at only 10–15 thousand tonnes, while consumption is at least 160 thousand tonnes, and Pakistan produces virtually no yellow peas. This creates new opportunities for Canada, Australia and other exporters, while at the same time intensifying competition for available volumes.
• China adds another element of uncertainty to the market. With domestic pea production of up to 1.5 million tonnes, the country consumes around 3.4 million tonnes, covering more than half of its needs through external markets.
• Canada has regained access to the Chinese market, but the area under peas in the country has declined by 13.7% this year. At the same time, global pea production in the 2026/27 marketing year could fall by around 13%. How will the competition for Chinese demand play out?
• Kazakhstan could also influence the redistribution of trade flows: the area under lentils is declining — including by 15% at Atameken Agro, one of the largest producers — while the area under peas could remain at around 200 thousand hectares. Kazakhstan has the potential to increase pulse exports, but logistical constraints remain a significant barrier.
• The situation in Türkiye is also mixed: instead of the previously forecast 350–400 thousand tonnes, red lentil production is now estimated at around 250 thousand tonnes.

«Behind each of these figures is a different situation in the local market, with its own expectations regarding harvests, demand, imports and prices. To examine the pulses market in the 2026/27 marketing year from different perspectives, AgroFoodSummit 2026 will bring together speakers from Ukraine, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Pakistan, Belgium and India on one panel. Producers and exporters, major consuming countries, international traders and analysts will present their own views on the balances of the new season. Who will have sufficient supply, where will shortages emerge, and how will this affect prices? These questions will be at the centre of an international discussion on September 24–25 during the ‘Global Pulses Market: Supply and Demand’ panel at AgroFoodSummit 2026,» said Antonina Skliarenko, President of the Ukrainian Pulses and Soybean Association.

Registration for AgroFoodSummit 2026