Grain exports

The global market could receive up to 38 million tonnes less grain from the Black Sea region if the limited operation of Black Sea ports continues until the end of the 2026/27 season.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its production forecasts and lowered its estimates for wheat and barley exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Global agricultural markets are entering the 2026/27 season amid shifting trade flows, intensifying competition for key buyers, and the growing influence of geopolitics and logistics on trade. How these factors will reshape markets in the new season and where opportunities will emerge for producers, traders and processors will be the central theme of AgroFoodSummit 2026, which will take place on September 24–25 in Mersin, Türkiye.

Ukrzaliznytsia considers an estimate of the potential throughput capacity of the rail route through Moldova for grain exports at 4.5 million tonnes per year to be realistic. At the same time, the company sees opportunities to further increase transportation volumes along this route.

As of September 4, exports of grains and pulses from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year amounted to 3.9 million tonnes, which is 14% less than in the previous season.

Exports of the main groups of agri-food products from Ukraine amounted to around 2.15 million tonnes, which is 41.5% less than in July, when 3.67 million tonnes were exported.

Europe should establish a special Port State Control regime for vessels carrying agricultural products from Ukraine.

Over the past few weeks, the situation on the global grain market has deteriorated sharply. Due to attacks on port and shipping infrastructure, buyers have begun looking for alternatives to Black Sea wheat. Cargoes are being delayed and cancelled, while wheat futures are rising.

The blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is putting the spring sowing season at risk.

From August 1 to 18, Ukraine exported 900,000 tonnes of agricultural products. This represents 31% of the volume that could have been exported if there had been unrestricted access to the ports of Greater Odesa.

Trade turnover in agricultural goods between Ukraine and the European Union in January–June 2026 increased by $847 million (+11%) compared with the same period last year and amounted to $8.55 billion.

Alternative routes for exports of grain, oilseeds and their processed products through the Danube region, by rail and road transport, during periods of their active use, provided a maximum of up to 50% of the volume that was shipped through the ports of Greater Odesa.

In August, vessels are no longer calling at the ports of Greater Odesa. From August 1 to 12, Ukraine exported 590 thousand tonnes of grain, which is 30% of the required volume. Currently, about 45% of agricultural exports are transported by rail, about 45% through the Danube region, and 10% by road.

The suspension of exports through seaports could result in tens of billions of dollars in lost revenue for Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year will amount to 38–40 million tonnes, which is 12% lower compared with previous estimates.