Grain exports

From August 1 to 18, Ukraine exported 900,000 tonnes of agricultural products. This represents 31% of the volume that could have been exported if there had been unrestricted access to the ports of Greater Odesa.

Trade turnover in agricultural goods between Ukraine and the European Union in January–June 2026 increased by $847 million (+11%) compared with the same period last year and amounted to $8.55 billion.

Alternative routes for exports of grain, oilseeds and their processed products through the Danube region, by rail and road transport, during periods of their active use, provided a maximum of up to 50% of the volume that was shipped through the ports of Greater Odesa.

In August, vessels are no longer calling at the ports of Greater Odesa. From August 1 to 12, Ukraine exported 590 thousand tonnes of grain, which is 30% of the required volume. Currently, about 45% of agricultural exports are transported by rail, about 45% through the Danube region, and 10% by road.

The suspension of exports through seaports could result in tens of billions of dollars in lost revenue for Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year will amount to 38–40 million tonnes, which is 12% lower compared with previous estimates.

Russian attacks on civilian vessels and port infrastructure have effectively halted traffic to the ports of Greater Odesa. Ukraine is expanding exports by rail, road and via the Danube. However, these routes will be able to provide only about half the capacity of the Black Sea ports. This poses a threat to exports of Ukraine’s harvest and the stability of global food markets.

Using alternative logistics routes will cost agricultural producers an additional €50–70 per tonne of products, while the total losses of Ukraine’s agricultural sector could amount to $1.5–3 billion. This is why the support of international partners is critically important both for Ukraine and for preserving global food security.

The suspension of seaborne exports is expected to have the greatest impact on Ukraine’s wheat market.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed harvest to 84.6 million tonnes, up from the 83.6 million tonnes projected in June.

The Ukrainian government, the diplomatic corps, and all relevant state institutions are working around the clock to restore the normal operation of the country’s ports.

Ukraine has confirmed its readiness to receive an Algerian inspection mission as soon as possible and to provide all necessary conditions for the inspection of a milk powder production facility.

International demand for Ukrainian wheat remains stable despite the effective suspension of grain exports through the ports of Greater Odesa due to intensified Russian attacks.

Over the past several days, only four to five vessels have been calling at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports due to Russian attacks, and vessel traffic was suspended on 22 July. The Ukrainian government is currently working to resolve the situation and will take all possible measures to ensure the continued stability of exports through the Black Sea ports.

NIBULON JV LLC strengthened its position in the international grain market during the 2025/26 marketing year.