Ukraine’s Oilseed Harvest Will Be Higher Than Last Year

This was reported by Svitlana Kuprieieva, oilseed market analyst at UkrAgroConsult.

She noted that official data on planted areas and the results of crop tours provided grounds for revising the structure of oilseed plantings in Ukraine: estimates for sunflower and soybean areas were lowered, while the estimate for rapeseed was raised.

«At the same time, following the hot start to August, risks for sunflower and soybeans have increased sharply, while the realization of the season’s production potential increasingly depends on logistics and the stable operation of ports,» the expert emphasized.

She also noted that despite the downward revision of the sunflower area estimate, a significant recovery in supply is expected compared with the poor harvest of the 2025/26 marketing year. The industry’s capacity makes it possible to process virtually all available volumes, but the realization of this potential will depend on the operation of processing plants and the ability to export processed products. Heat and insufficient rainfall are already worsening crop conditions and creating a risk of a further downward revision of the harvest forecast.

At the same time, for soybeans, even the higher expected yield will not compensate for the reduction in planted area, so production may decline compared with the previous season. Accordingly, the export potential for soybeans and soybean products is declining, while domestic processing remains an important channel of demand.

«Prospects for rapeseed have improved due to an increase in planted area and higher yields. Given limited port logistics, the increase in production may primarily be directed to domestic processing, while export potential remains constrained,» the analyst concluded.