Wheat

The global market could receive up to 38 million tonnes less grain from the Black Sea region if the limited operation of Black Sea ports continues until the end of the 2026/27 season.

Record-breaking heat across Europe has had only a limited impact on early grain crops, but corn losses are expected. Ukrainian grain could help offset these shortages, although export opportunities will largely depend on logistics.

Stocks of cereals and legumes in Ukraine as of June 1, 2026, amounted to 9.5 million tonnes, which is nearly 4 million tonnes more than on the same date last year.

When forecasting grain prices, market participants now take into account not only weather conditions and the balance of supply and demand, but also the geopolitical situation. The military conflict in the Middle East and the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may have long-term consequences for the global grain market.