Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year will amount to 38–40 million tonnes, which is 12% lower compared with previous estimates.
This forecast was announced by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi in a comment to Reuters.
Before russian attacks on port infrastructure intensified in late July, the ministry had forecast exports at 43 million tonnes.
The ministry’s estimate is generally in line with the forecast by APK-Inform, according to which grain exports will amount to 39.4 million tonnes (-8.6%).
In particular, exports are expected to reach:
It was previously reported that disruptions to grain storage and transportation caused by Russian attacks could lead to a storage capacity shortage of 11 million tonnes.

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The current situation with complicated logistics caused by the blockade of Black Sea ports has not had a critical impact on the autumn sowing campaign. However, the area under winter crops will still decline.

By the end of September, Ukraine had exported 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products, representing 46% of the required volume. Of this, grain exports amounted to 1.4 million tonnes, or 38% of the potentially required export volume.

Ukraine sees no positive signs that a truce to ensure grain exports through the Black Sea could be reached in the coming months.