Shifting Grain Exports to Alternative Routes Means $3 Billion in Additional Costs

This was stated by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyi in an interview with DW.

«Taking into account the harvest forecast, Ukraine can export more than 60 million tonnes of products — around 5 million tonnes per month. This means that it will be physically impossible to export half of this volume, around 30 million tonnes, via alternative routes. The maximum capacity of alternative routes is up to 2.5 million tonnes per month on average. In some months, it may reach 3 million tonnes, but the average will not be higher,» he explained.

He added that alternative routes mean additional costs of $50/t or more.

«With an export potential of 60 million tonnes, this means $3 billion in additional costs. Neither agricultural producers nor the state budget have such reserves to compensate for this. Therefore, the main and, by and large, the only medium-term solution should be the restoration of shipping through the ports of Greater Odesa,» Taras Vysotskyi emphasised.

He added that the Danube route has the greatest capacity among the alternative routes — it generated up to 60% of cargo traffic, followed by rail and then road transport. However, in August–September, due to low water levels, the Danube can handle no more than 40% of the planned volumes.

«August will not see large volumes: a maximum of up to 1.5 million tonnes can be exported via alternative routes in August — out of the 2.5 million tonnes that could potentially be exported on average. This is because time is needed, railway routes may be occupied by European counterparts, and storage facilities are also occupied — all of this is planned with a lag of at least two months. Such volumes do not appear immediately, but this work has already been launched,» Taras Vysotskyi concluded.