UGA Raises Ukraine’s 2026 Grain and Oilseed Harvest Forecast

According to the association’s press service, the forecast has been increased by 1 million tonnescompared to the previous estimate, thanks to favourable weather conditions, sufficient soil moisture, and consequently higher expected yields of early crops.

UGA experts believe that grain and oilseed exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) could potentially reach nearly 52 million tonnes (previous forecast: 50.8 million tonnes; last season: 41.1 million tonnes). However, this optimistic scenario depends on the full restoration of operations at Ukraine’s deep-water ports in the Greater Odesa area, as well as an end to Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure, energy facilities, and vessels calling at Ukrainian ports.

The association estimates Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest at 23.7 million tonnes, compared with 22.5 million tonnes in 2025. Wheat exports could potentially reach 18 million tonnes, up from 14 million tonnes in the previous season.

The barley harvest is forecast at 5.5 million tonnes, compared with 4.9 million tonnes last year, while exports in the 2026/27 MY are expected to total around 2.3 million tonnes, compared with 1.5 million tonnes in the previous season.

Prospects for this year’s corn harvest remain favourable due to the weather conditions so far. UGA forecasts corn production at 32.1 million tonnes, compared with 31.1 million tonnes last year. Corn exports in the new season could potentially reach 27 million tonnes, up from 21 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.

Sunflower seed production is estimated at 13.3 million tonnes, compared with 11.1 million tonneslast year. As is customary, almost the entire sunflower seed crop—approximately 13.5 million tonnes—is expected to be processed domestically. Sunflower seed exports are projected to remain below 40,000 tonnes, according to the association.

Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 3.5 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 3.2 million tonnes in 2025. Rapeseed exports in the 2026/27 MY are forecast at 1.9 million tonnes, with the remaining volumes to be processed within Ukraine.

UGA estimates the soybean harvest at 4.6 million tonnes, down from 5 million tonnes last year. Soybean exports are projected at 2.2 million tonnes, compared with 2.7 million tonnes in the previous season. The remaining volumes are expected to be processed domestically, as legislative restrictions continue to limit soybean exports, similar to those affecting rapeseed.