Ukraine’s Grain and Oilseed Harvest Expected to Reach 83.6 Million Tonnes in 2026
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) forecasts Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed harvest at 83.6 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 80 million tonnes in 2025.
According to the association’s press service, such a harvest could potentially allow exports in the 2026/27 marketing year to reach 50.8 million tonnes, while exports in the current season are estimated at 42.3 million tonnes.
«However, this is an optimistic scenario that will only be possible if Ukraine’s logistics challenges do not worsen due to Russia’s aggression and the ongoing attacks on Ukrainian transport infrastructure and energy facilities,» analysts noted.
UGA estimates Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest at 22.8 million tonnes, compared to 22.5 million tonnes in 2025. Potential wheat exports in the 2026/27 MY could reach 17 million tonnes, versus 13.5 million tonnes in the current season.
Barley production in 2026 is forecast at 5.2 million tonnes, up from 4.9 million tonnes in 2025. Exports are expected to total around 2.2 million tonnes, compared to 1.6 million tonnes this season.
«The outlook for the corn harvest this year is positive thanks to currently favorable weather conditions. According to UGA estimates, the corn harvest could reach 32.1 million tonnes, compared to 31.1 million tonnes in 2025, while exports in the new season could total 27 million tonnes, provided logistics remain uninterrupted,» the association added.
Corn exports in the current season are estimated at 22 million tonnes.Sunflower production in 2026 is expected to increase to 13.3 million tonnes, compared to 11.1 million tonnes in 2025. Traditionally, almost the entire sunflower crop will be processed domestically, with processing volumes projected at 13.5 million tonnes. Exports are expected to remain below 50,000 tonnes.
Rapeseed production in 2026 could reach 3.4 million tonnes, up from 3.2 million tonnes in 2025. At the same time, rapeseed exports in the 2026/27 MY are forecast at only 1.9 million tonnes, as the remainder will be processed within Ukraine.
Ukraine’s soybean harvest this year is projected at 4.9 million tonnes, slightly below the 5 million tonnes harvested in 2025. Potential exports are estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, compared to 2.9 million tonnes this season. The rest of the crop is expected to be processed domestically, as legislative restrictions continue to complicate soybean and rapeseed exports.
