Exporting Ukrainian grain via alternative routes inevitably increases logistics costs. Freight rates at Danube ports have more than doubled over the past month and continue to rise.
This was stated by Oleh Khomenko, Director General of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), as reported by AgroTimes.
«Complicated logistics have created an imbalance between global and domestic prices. In particular, the price of wheat in Constanța has increased by $30 per tonne over the past week, while domestic prices in Ukraine have fallen by UAH 1,000–1,500 per tonne for grain crops. Considering that rerouting Ukrainian grain shipments to the Port of Constanța adds another $30–40 per tonne, farmers will, at best, break even if they conclude forward contracts with delivery in September–October,»he said.
The expert also added that the government has already approved a 30% indexation of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) freight tariffs, creating additional domestic costs and financial pressure. UCAB emphasizes that this increase should be postponed until sufficient export volumes have been exported.
In addition, due to the abnormal heatwave in Europe, the Danube River's water level in Romania has fallen to its lowest level since 1996, reaching 1,500–1,700 m³/s. As a result, vessels are currently loaded to only 20–30% of their capacityin order to reduce draft. According to forecasts and seasonal hydrological patterns, the Danube is expected to return to normal water levels in October–Novemberand regain its transport capacity.

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The suspension of seaborne exports is expected to have the greatest impact on Ukraine’s wheat market.