Despite Rapeseed Ban, Poland May Increase Oil Imports from Ukraine

The Polish market may import finished oil directly from Ukraine or from other EU countries that process Ukrainian rapeseed. This opinion was expressed by InfoGrain agricultural market analyst Mirosław Marciniak in a comment to Polish media, UkrAgroConsult reports.

According to the expert, an increase in imports of rapeseed oil may intensify competition for Polish processing companies. If imported products are cheaper, domestic rapeseed processing may decline, which, in turn, would reduce demand for Polish-produced rapeseed.

This factor is particularly important for the biodiesel industry, which remains the largest consumer of rapeseed oil in Poland. Buyers of raw materials for biofuel production, as Mirosław Marciniak explains, may choose the most competitive offers regardless of the country of origin. Therefore, even restrictions on direct supplies of Ukrainian oil would not rule out its entry into the Polish market through other EU countries.

According to the analyst, last season rapeseed oil imports into Poland increased by around 130,000 tonnes compared with the previous season. At the same time, the direction of rapeseed trade between Poland and Germany has also changed: while several years ago Poland exported rapeseed to the German market, it now imports more rapeseed from Germany than it supplies there.

Further price dynamics for Polish rapeseed will largely depend on MATIF quotations, the exchange rate and rapeseed oil prices. According to the analyst, high oil prices allow processors to pay more for raw materials, while increased imports of finished oil may reduce processing margins and limit demand for rapeseed within Poland.