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Diesel Prices Rise During Harvest: Break-Even Yield for Winter Wheat Revealed

28 July 2026, 06:21 15232

Fuel prices in Ukraine continue to rise, with the average price of diesel approaching UAH 90 per litre.

According to calculations by researchers at the National Scientific Centre «Institute of Agrarian Economics», fuel and lubricants are expected to account for approximately 12–15% of agricultural production costs in 2026, second only to mineral fertilizers. More than 85% of diesel fuel used in the agricultural sector is consumed directly during field operations, with approximately one-third used during the harvest campaign.

As a result, any increase in diesel prices is reflected almost immediately in grain production costs, says Oleksandr Zakharchuk, Head of the Department of Investment and Material & Technical Support at the Institute and Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine (NAAS).

According to the institute’s calculations, at current market conditions the break-even yield for winter wheat is approximately 5 tonnes per hectare, assuming a grain market price of UAH 9,000 per tonne. In other words, if a farm harvests a lower yield or sells grain at a lower price, even a relatively moderate increase in fuel and logistics costs during the harvest season may push production into unprofitability.

However, fuel costs are only one part of the overall cost structure.

Oleksandr Zakharchuk, Head of the Department of Investment and Material & Technical Support at the National Scientific Centre «Institute of Agrarian Economics», Corresponding Member of the NAAS

Production costs in 2026 have already increased by approximately 15% compared to the previous year. This is driven not only by higher diesel prices but also by rising costs for mineral fertilizers, seeds, crop protection products, electricity, as well as challenging logistics and labour shortages. Overall, crop production costs could reach UAH 650–680 billion.

According to the expert, the expected production costs for farms in 2026 will average around UAH 45,000 per hectare for the cultivation of five major crops: winter wheat, grain corn, winter rapeseed, soybeans, and sunflower.

Small and medium-sized farms remain the most vulnerable, as they often lack long-term fuel supply contracts, rely on leased machinery, or face higher transportation costs.

Large agricultural holdings are able to partially offset rising costs through bulk fuel purchases, fuel reserves, and economies of scale.

Oleksandr Zakharchuk, Head of the Department of Investment and Material & Technical Support at the National Scientific Centre «Institute of Agrarian Economics», Corresponding Member of the NAAS

When another increase in fuel prices occurs during the peak of the harvest season, on top of the already high logistics costs caused by the war, it does not automatically mean that all wheat producers will become unprofitable. However, it significantly reduces the financial resilience of many farms.

At the same time, the researcher emphasizes that with yields exceeding 5 tonnes per hectare and favourable market conditions, winter wheat remains a profitable crop. Conversely, lower yields or weaker market prices may mean that additional fuel expenses significantly reduce—or even eliminate—the profitability of production.
Alla Stryzheus, AgroPortal.ua

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