IGC predicts decline in global flour trade
World trade in wheat flour in the 2025-2026 season will be reduced to the lowest level in the last four years.
This forecast was made by the experts of the International Grain Council (IGC), World Grain writes.
According to the IGC, the volume of global flour trade will amount to about 16 million tons (in terms of wheat), which is 3% less than last season. This will be the second consecutive year of decline.
A significant factor was the situation in Sudan. After the peak of 1.4 mln tonnes in 2024-2025 season, flour imports to the country are expected to drop to 400 thsd tonnes. This is in line with historical levels. The share of flour in the total wheat imports will decrease to about 15%, compared to almost 60% a year earlier.
Iraq, according to the Council, will reduce imports by 500 thsd tonnes to 700 thsd tonnes. This may be the lowest level since the 2007-2008 season. The IGC notes that the reduction is due to the expansion of domestic capacities, government support measures and growth of domestic grain production. Additionally, the market may be affected by the situation in the Persian Gulf.
The import forecasts for Ethiopia, Uzbekistan and Yemen have been lowered, while those for Afghanistan, Syria and Bolivia have been raised.
Afghanistan's imports have been increased by 500 thousand tons to 3.8 million tons. The main suppliers are Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and, to an increasing extent, Russia.
Syria is increasing purchases due to poor harvest and problems in its own processing. Deliveries to the country may reach a record 1 million tons, which will bring it to second place among the largest importers.
Egypt will reduce supplies from 1.9 million to 600 thousand tons in 2025-2026. Turkey's exports will grow to 4.1 million tons, but will remain below the average for the last five years.
In its preliminary forecast for the 2026-2027 season, IGC expects global trade to recover to 16.2 million tons. However, according to the organization, the dynamics will depend on margins and security conditions in the main importing countries.
Iraq and Sudan's imports are expected to remain below previous peaks, while Afghanistan may slightly increase purchases due to the development of trade with Uzbekistan. A slight increase is also forecast in sub-Saharan Africa, where Somalia may become the largest importer.